September 2023

Your Guide to the Central Texas
Real Estate Market 

Austin's Future Growth Takes First in Nation

A report has found that the state capital will take the gold as the fastest growing large metro area in the nation by 2028, with Houston and Dallas close behind.  The report was used to discover the American metro areas that will have the most “favorable long-term labor conditions.”

The total population of Austin, Round Rock and Georgetown in 2023 adds up to nearly 2.4 million people, according to the Population Growth Analysis by Site Selection Group.  With a projected population growth rate of 13.55 percent (the highest out of all metro areas), that means Austin’s population in the next five years could balloon to more than 2.7 million people.

“Most population growth is occurring across the Sun Belt,” the report’s author says.  “Specific to the large metro areas, eight of the top 10 growth markets are located within the Sun Belt, such as Florida, North Carolina, Tennessee and Texas.”

The top 10 fastest-growing large metro areas by 2028 are:

  • No. 1 – Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown
  • No. 2 – Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
  • No. 3 – Nashville-Davidson-Murfeesboro-Franklin, Tennessee
  • No. 4 – Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina
  • No. 5 – Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington
  • No. 6 – Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Florida
  • No. 7 – Salt Lake City, Utah
  • No. 8 – Charlotte-Concord-Castonia, North Carolina-South Carolina
  • No. 9 – Jacksonville, Florida
  • No. 10 – Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Washington

Property Tax Relief Vote

Mark your calendar for November 7th! That’s when Texas residents vote on the Texas Property tax relief package lawmakers agreed to last month. The compromise between Texas lawmakers, which came after many months of disagreement, includes an increased homestead exemption and property cuts for businesses and homeowners. If voters approve the deal, those exemptions and cuts will become effective this year.
If voters approve the deal, the Texas homestead exemption will more than double, from $40,000 to $100,000. This would mean an additional $60,000 of a property’s taxable value would be exempt from property taxes.

  • The homestead exemption would be $110,000 for Texas homeowners 65 and older.
  • Homeowners with disabilities would also be eligible for the $110,000 exemption, regardless of age.
  • Investment properties under $5 million in value would yearly cap yearly on appraisal increases at 20%.

Homesteaded properties will still be subject to the 10% maximum increase under current law.

MLS Sales Volume - 5 Year Trend

The Austin Board of Realtors (ABoR) MLS encompasses the 5-county area of Travis, Williamson, Hays, Caldwell and Bastrop.

The sales volume recorded by the ABoR MLS reflects the total dollar amount of homes sold.  Each year the MLS sales volume trends to peak in the springtime and slowly decreases.  In 2020 and 2021, the decline occurred later in the year.

The sales volume for 2023 is lower than the sales volume in 2022, but is significantly higher than the pre-pandemic level in 2019.

Mortgage Rates Tracking Above 7%

Over the last 4 months, interest rates have steadily increased.  This week, the average rate on a 30-year mortgages rose to 7.8 percent this week, up from 7.55 percent last week, according to Bankrate’s weekly national survey of large lenders. That’s the highest level since November 2000, according to Bankrate data.

The increase reflects a variety of factors, including the Federal Reserve’s continuing fight against inflation, rising Treasury yields and the fading prospects of a recession. The central bank decided against another rate hike at its Sept. 20 meeting, but it left open the chance of another hike before the end of the year.

The Austin Round-Rock MSA has almost reached 10,000 listings, which is just shy of 4 months of home inventory causing a more stable market.

HORIZON REALTY has helped buyers and sellers in Austin and surrounding areas with their real estate needs since 1999. The success of the company stems from ensuring a positive real estate experience for both agents and clients. 
Currently HORIZON REALTY sponsors over 100 professional REALTORS® spanning a variety of real estate services from residential and commercial sales to leasing and property management.  
Outside of real estate, HORIZON REALTY has been an active sponsor and contributor to programs such as Coats for Kids, Soles for Souls, The Miracle Foundation, the Capital Area Food Bank and Toys for Tots.